Falling satellite updates — ERS-2 crashes to Earth between two US states after almost 30 years in space
A LARGE satellite has reentered Earth's atmosphere today between two US states.
The European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed that the craft reentered Earth in the North Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii.
The satellite was launched into space in 1995, and was active until 2011, when it was de-orbited by the ESA to help reduce space junk.
The satellite weighed in at over 5,000 lbs, but most of it likely burned up when it entered the Earth's atmosphere.
Read our falling satellite blog for the latest updates...
Reentry confirmed
The ESA has confirmed that ERS-2 has returned to Earth.
It entered the atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii.
More on Starlink satellites
How the probes could affect the night sky has sparked concern as they sit in a low orbit, meaning they appear brighter than stars and planets.
The satellites typically orbit around 340 miles above Earth.
Each satellite weighs around 573lb/260kg, and features a flat-panel design that makes the probes easily stackable aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
Starlink satellites, explained
More than 1,200 starlink satellites have been launched so far, with the network set to eventually reach 12,000, rising to as many as 42,000 in the future.
SpaceX sends its satellites up in batches of 60 at a time.
Each group is launched atop an unmanned Falcon 9 rocket built and operated by SpaceX.
More on the satellite's mission
ERS-2 was launched in April 1995 and completed its mission in September 2011.
Together with its twin satellite ERS-1, the pair collected valuable data on Earth’s land surfaces, oceans, and polar caps.
The craft also monitored natural disasters, like severe flooding or earthquakes in remote parts of the world.
Craft may have 'already reentered'
The ESA has issued an update.
"We have now reached the end of the final reentry window. We have received no new observations of ERS-2," the agency on X, formerly known as Twitter.
"This may mean that the satellite has already reentered, but we are waiting for information from our partners before we can confirm. Stay tuned."
Craft clears Hawaii
The ERS-2 satellite has now cleared Hawaii.
There is a long way to go before it approaches land again, if it does.
It can reenter at any point, although it has passed multiple windows of uncertainty.
Approaching Hawaii
ERS-2 craft is now headed for Hawaii.
It could reenter Earth at any moment.
ERS-2 approaches Canada
ERS-2 is expected to decay at any moment.
It is currently headed toward Canada.
Credit: Satflare Window of uncertainty remains
The ESA has changed its prediction time for the crash.
The reentry is now expected to occur at around 12:05 EST.
However, there is a 30-minute window of uncertainty.
New crash prediction
European Space Agency the craft will crash north of Norway.
However, there is still a window of uncertainty.
The satellite has just cleared Africa and can crash at any moment.
Tracker shows ERS-2 approaching Africa
The ERS-2 shows the satellite headed toward Africa.
Credit: Satflare 'Nothing to report'
The ESA has issued an update.
"We have now passed the centre of the reentry window. The agency on X, formerly known as Twitter.
"Nothing to report as of yet."
Putting the risk into perspective
The ESA has of other rare events that are more likely to occur than getting injured by space debris:
- 1.5 million times more likely to be killed in an accident at home
- 65,000 times more likely to be struck by lightning
- Three times more likely to be struck by a meteorite
ERS-2 now over Pacific Ocean
The ERS-2 satellite is currently over the Pacific Ocean, according to a tracker.
The craft was previously projected to land near the United States, which it has officially cleared.
Satellite could reenter at any time now
The window for the ERS-2 satellite's return to Earth opened shortly after 9 am EST.
The craft is expected to crash any time from then until 12:30 pm ET.
Timing of return wasn't certain
The ESA initially wasn't sure exactly when the satellite would fall back to Earth.
It was suspected sometime within 15 years, and according to .
It has been 13 years since that prediction.
How the ESA de-orbited the satellite
The ESA made the decision to de–orbit the satellite in an effort to help reduce space junk.
The remaining fuel on the craft was used up in the process, which involved 66 maneuvers.
The satellite was then at a lower orbit and less of a crash risk for other space objects.
Antenna might stay intact
Experts have predicted that most, if not all of the satellite will burn up as it enter's the planet's atmosphere.
However, it is possible that the satellite's 115lb antenna could remain intact.
If that occurs, there is also a chance it could crash land somewhere on Earth.
Fuel weighed 500 lbs
When the satellite was first launched, it weighed 5,547 lbs (2,516kg).
Without the fuel, it now weighs roughly 5,057 pounds (2,294kg).
Despite its massive size, most of the satellite will likely burn up when it enters the Earth's atmosphere.
Satellite was launched almost 30 years ago
The ERS-2 satellite was launched in 1995 for an Earth observation study by the European Space Agency.
ERS-2's Earth-observing duties were halted in 2011.
The ESA emptied the satellite's fuel tank to lower its altitude and save the hardware from a potential collision with other operational satellites.
Danger risk is low
There is always a risk when space objects shoot towards Earth.
However, even if the satellite doesn't fully burn up in the planet's atmosphere, it is unlikely to be a risk.
The chance of a person being hit by space debris is under one in 100 billion annually, according to the ESA.
Where the debris are expected to land
Any debris from the satellite are likely to land in the ocean as water covers about 70 percent of Earth.
"The vast majority of the satellite will burn up, and any pieces that survive will be spread out somewhat randomly over a ground track on average hundreds of kilometres long and a few tens of kilometers wide (which is why the associated risks are very, very low)," ESA said.
Current predictions suggest it could land somewhere in the North Pacific Ocean.
Satellite expected to crash to Earth this morning
The European Space Agency's (ESA) latest prediction suggests the satellite will fall to Earth at around 15:49 GMT or 10:49 EST.
Experts predict the uncertainty of this estimate is now just +/- 1.76 hours.
